Electricity use falls because of efficiency

By Elisa Wood

October 30, 2008

Electricity sales can gauge the national economic health. An ailing economy uses less electricity because is produces fewer goods and services. Sometimes, however, electricity sales fall for a good reason – efficiency.

Such is the case in the United States, according to a recent statistics released by the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC). The organization annually assesses how well the grid is likely to perform over the next several years.

The 300-page report has a lot to say, but this headline jumped out at us: Demand Response Projected to Offset Nearly 80% of U.S. Peak Demand Growth in 2016; Significant Growth in Energy Efficiency Projected.

NERC forecasts that North America will offset 34,000 MW through demand response – a kind of efficiency program where customers are paid to reduce energy use when the grid is under strain. In addition, conventional energy efficiency programs are expected to cut electricity use by 11,000 MW. As a result, total electric demand will drop 3.3%, NERC said.

Demand response will become “a critical resource” to help us keep the lights on over the next ten years, according to the report. Our economy is becoming increasingly electrified, but we are unwilling to build more energy infrastructure. “Many coal plants have been deferred or cancelled, nuclear plants are becoming more and more expensive, and transmission lines increasingly difficult to site,” NERC said. Demand response will help bridge the gap between our electricity needs and our power resources.

Further, demand response is a good “dance partner” for wind energy, a resource that NERC forecasts will grow 750% by 2017. Wind farms offer a clean source of energy. But they only create electricity when the wind blows. Demand response can serve as wind’s partner during these times, reducing energy use to make up for the loss and averting a greater ramp-up of fossil fuel generators.

Our demand for electricity will still grow over the next several years, as our use of computers, cell phones and other electronic devices increases — but not as much as we had thought. Last year, NERC forecasted a 17.7% growth in summer peak demand; this year it puts the figure at 16.6%. The organization attributes much of the change to efficiency. We’ve figured out how to do more with less, a good economic move.

Visit Elisa Wood at www.realenergywriters.com and pick up her free Energy Efficiency Markets podcast and newsletter.

Think Gas Prices Are High? Electricity is Next.

By Elisa Wood

Today’s interest in energy efficiency may be nothing compared to tomorrow’s, if power prices rise as much as expected.

One of the biggest price drivers, at this point, appears to be greenhouse gas restrictions, which Congress is expected to enact. It’s not clear yet exactly what the rules will be. But a federal analysis of a leading proposal shows electricity prices rising 5% to 27% by 2020 and as much as 64% by 2030. http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/s2191/index.html

And greenhouse gas restrictions are only one factor pushing up electricity prices. Industry insiders cite additional pressure from rising fuel costs, higher component costs, and new transmission investments.

And then there is demand for power. Many of us think the US finished its electrification when the country finally connected all of rural America to the grid during the 1950s. http://www.greatachievements.org/?id=2990. But in some sense, it appears that was only the beginning of electrification. We did not anticipate the kind of second round, now occurring, as many everyday tools become electricity-driven, most notably the pen and paper’s transformation into the computer. Another major step in electrification is likely as the plug-in hybrid car becomes available to consumers in just two years. By 2030, these cars – which we fuel by plugging into a typical household electrical outlet – are expected to make up 30% of car sales, according to the Electric Power Research Institute.

Computers, plug-in cars, and other electric devices will boost our electricity needs dramatically. The US Energy Information Administration, often conservative in its forecasts, expects demand for electricity to grow 40% by 2030. To meet that need, the US must construct 250 to 500 new power plants – and power plants are not cheap. The EIA estimates the cost will be $412 billion. http://www.eei.org/industry_issues/electricity_policy/state_and_local_policies/rising_electricity_costs/causes.htm

This week the Long Island Power Authority said it plans to offer customers $924 million in efficiency products and services over the next 10 years. It is a lot of money, but cheaper, says LIPA, than building new power plants. Customers will pay about $40 per year to cover the cost. But they can recoup the charge – and more – by taking advantage of efficiency products offered through the program. A typical residential customer can recoup the money in a few months and save $90 annually on electricity costs by replacing six incandescent bulbs with compact florescent bulbs, tuning up a household air conditioner and sealing ducts, according to LIPA.

Because of such savings, hardly a week goes by now without a governor, mayor or utility in the US announcing a new efficiency goal. They are bracing for higher electricity prices and looking to energy efficiency as the only sure-fire, short-term way to ease consumer costs.

Visit energy writer Elisa Wood and subscribe to her free Energy Efficiency Markets newsletter and podcast at www.realenergywriters.com.