Changing the energy game with the ‘power of one’

By Elisa Wood

May 23, 2012

Who among us has not eagerly described the smart meter to a non-energy person only to be greeted by a blank stare, or worse the retort: “Why would I want to track my electricity costs all day?”

You try to explain the profound applications: smart appliances that talk to the power grid, consumer clubs that sell energy savings, your car serving as a power plant. But the conversation then becomes one about fascinating toys, not a world change.

A new paper by Joseph Stanislaw, independent senior energy advisor at Deloitte, eloquently gets to the real meaning of smart grid. Moving beyond the gadget talk, he describes the bigger picture, how new energy efficiency and smart technologies will democratize energy.

Energy efficiency could have “a greater impact on the global energy picture than any other development,” according to the paper, titled Energy’s next frontiers: How technology is radically reshaping supply, demand and the energy of geopolitics.

“The breakthroughs have been stunning, and often elegant in their simplicity. Among the least appreciated technologies are those that empower companies and individuals to understand and manage—and thus significantly reduce—their energy consumption. Last year, venture capitalists invested $275 million—up 75% from 2010—in start-ups that make software and other technologies to manage energy use,” the paper says.

Stanislaw explains how smart technologies are bringing about ‘the Power of One’ in the energy game.  No longer passive receivers, consumers and businesses become active choosers; hence they influence the kind of generation plants we build – or if we build them at all – simply by the way they use electricity. Our market signals, not central planning, shape the infrastructure we build.

The Power of One idea often gets lost in political discourse about energy. Debate tends to focus on wind power tax incentives, solar trade wars, the pros and cons of hydraulic fracturing and access to public lands to drill oil.

But when it comes to electricity, it will be the Power of One that changes the playing field most by giving the individual control over energy, much the way the Internet gave us control over information. As a result, even if governments fail to act effectively, corporations and individuals now have the ability to “make a radical difference in their own consumption—and thus to materially influence the broader energy game,” the paper says.

More specifically Stanislaw explains: “The new energy-related software and hardware on the market and in development—smart meters, smart appliances, demand management programs, and so forth—liberate individual actors from being at the mercy of broader forces.” This liberation, or shifting of control over energy decisions from nations to individuals, transforms what has come to be known as ‘the Great Game’ – the wrangling of nations over energy supply.

While the Great Game previously focused on oil, technology is the new prize.

“The ‘Great Game of the 21st Century’ is the technology continuum driving along the development curve from 1.0 to 2.0 to 3.0—with each version coming faster than the one before. The future is one of continuous research and development, informed investment job creation, and greater energy security—without sacrificing the environment,” the paper says.

Rapid-fire technology change heightens the need for sustainability planning by businesses, he adds. And the ability to collect and understand data  about energy becomes increasingly important. Whether the company makes shoes or semi- conductors, energy is part of its business. All companies become energy companies in a smart grid world.

Stanislaw describes a “virtuous energy cycle” that occurs for households and companies that pursue efficiency: They save money and protect the environment. Moreover, “the consumption of energy is no longer just an economic act—this is becoming a conscious act and an act of conscience. This will likely intensify in the coming years.”

Stanislaw’s paper is a good read. See it here.

Your electric meter: A villain or hero?

By Elisa Wood

February 23, 2011

Before energy became a hot topic, no one cared about the electric meter. It was the box on the house we all ignored except the guy from the utility who dodged the barking dogs to take a reading from it once in awhile.

It is a sign of our times that this box now inspires enough emotion for people to take to the streets. Protesters gathered outside the California Public Utilities Commission last week claiming that new metering technology not only makes people sick, but also violates their Constitutional rights.http://stopsmartmeters.wordpress.com/2011/02/18/feb-16th-protest-at-the-ca-public-utilities-commission/ Such opposition has been going on in California for months and has spread to other states.

On the other end of the spectrum, new or ‘smart’ meters are hailed as the addiction counselors that will save us from our dependence on foreign energy. Thus, utilities are rapidly replacing our ignored ‘dumb’ meters with the new smart version. North America and Europe will replace 45% their meters with smart ones by 2015, according to Pike Research. http://www.pikeresearch.com/research/smart-meters

So it is not a surprise to see that the Electric Power Research Institute weighed in recently with a study on the safety of smart meters. The study concluded that the radio-frequency (RF) exposure levels from the meters – at least the type examined by EPRI –are too low to be any danger to human health. In fact, the study found smart meter emis sions, even at the maximum point, are about equal to emissions from WiFi routers and radio and television transmission. They are far lower than exposure fields from cell phones or microwave ovens, according to EPRI.www.epri.com

Known as advanced metering infrastructure (AMI), the new wireless meter uses digital technology to allow for two way communication between the household and the utility. Used optimally, the smart meter provides price signals from the utility so that consumers can choose when to do laundry, cook dinner or undertake other energy-consuming activities. The idea is to discourage use of the electric grid when it is under strain. This allows us to cut back on the number of peaking power plants we must build. These plants, which use fossil fuels, emit harmful pollutants.

So whichever side you take, whether you think of smart meters as hero or villain, there are health issues to consider. Smart meters increase RF exposure; lack of smart meters over the long term increases emissions from power generation.

No doubt we will hear much more about this issue. Indeed, EPRI sees its study as just the first step in responding to public concern.

But one thing is for certain, the meter is no longer the ignored box on the house. Like much in energy, its significance is rising in US policy, economic and health debate. Energy is front and center in the public psyche. That’s a good thing, since smart boxes will only get us so far in energy planning; smart consumers are the key.

This blog is open source & copyright free with attribution to www.RealEnergyWriters.com. Visit Elisa Wood at www.realenergywriters.com and pick up her free weekly newsletter and podcast.

Smart meters: Truly a cure for energy blindness?

By Elisa Wood

July 1, 2010

And now for a dose of reality.

No doubt smart meters are a good thing, but even their most ardent fans must admit that a degree of hoopla surrounds these little digital boxes. We hear that if consumers can just see how much power they use in real time, and what it costs, our energy woes will be no more.

Smart meters will even cure the blind. The energy blind that is.

“It can be difficult to separate the hype from legitimate claims,” said the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy in a new report that evaluates what works – and what doesn’t – when it comes to smart meters.

ACEEE points out that we no longer load the stove with coal and wood for our primary energy. Instead, gas and electricity flow unseen to take care of our needs. Since we see only a monthly bill, we have no idea what energy costs in real time, how much we use, or even the acceptable social norm for energy consumption.

Thus, most people in the US are “among the energy blind,” says the report. Asking us to save energy based on our monthly bills alone is like asking a dieter to lose weight without a scale. “Perhaps it can be done, but the task is a lot more difficult,” the report says.

But seeing how much energy we use is one thing; acting on it another. Smart meters will not do their job if we rely on the technology alone. The consumer needs good reason to act, according to ACEEE.

These findings are important because the US and other nations are making a huge investment in smart grid technology. Smart meters represented only about 4.7% of US household meters in 2008. But their market share is expected to grow to 40% over the next five to seven years, according to the report.

The report looked at 57 studies, three decades of research in Europe, North America, Australia and Japan, and found that smart meters can be effective. In fact, households using them have reduced electricity use 4% to 12%.

But much depends on how the meters present information and feedback and how we respond. Ultimately, the smartness of smart meters relies on utilities understanding human psychology.

The report offers several interesting insights about our energy behaviour. For example:

• We are less apt to respond to programs that focus on reducing energy at specific times (peak periods when costs are high) than reducing energy all the time.
• We need to feel our actions truly make a difference.
• An energy crisis is more likely to motivate us to conserve than arguments about climate change, especially if we live in the US.
• Smart meters may be unnecessary. We like our cell phones, and if only 20% of US consumers used them to manage household energy use, we could significantly reduce energy waste.
• We need feedback on a long-term basis to continue to save energy.
• When we receive feedback on energy use, we tend to change our habits and make small changes like installing weather stripping. To a lesser degree, we replace appliances, although they offer the most energy savings.

There has been a lot of talk about how smart grid will marry two giant industries: energy and information technology. True. But the ACEEE study makes apparent that a third field needs to play a big role: behavioural science.

“The bottom line here is very simple: Smart meters in and of themselves are just not ‘smart’ enough to get the job done for consumers and our economy. While advanced metering provides a useful tool to save energy, cut consumer electric bills and reduce greenhouse gas emissions from power plants, utilities need to use these advanced meters to provide consumers with information on their consumption in ways that grab consumers attention and encourage them to take action,” said John “Skip” Laitner, ACEEE’s director of economic and social analysis.

The report can be found at http://www.aceee.org/press/e105pr.htm

Visit www.realenergywriters.com to pick up a free Energy Efficiency Markets podcast and newsletter.

The utility of the future? Think shopping mall

By Elisa Wood

April 1, 2010

The energy world is about to turn upside down. With the coming of smart grid, the electricity consumer becomes the electricity seller; the passive home appliance becomes the active energy manager; the grid repairman becomes the grid itself.

Such an upheaval means that the energy world needs to start thinking about a new business model, says a recent report by IBM Global Business Services Energy and Utilities.

The fact that IBM is advising the energy industry is itself a point of interest, yet another signal of the new market opportunity emerging within the energy arena for information technology. This opportunity has drawn the attention of not only IBM, but also CISCO, Google and many others.

So how does IBM see the energy business model changing? First consider what it has been for the last century: a grow-and-build model. This model brought universal electrification to the United States. Utilities encouraged more and more consumption, and they built power plants and transmission to the far corners of the nation to serve the growing demand.

“The success of this strategy was remarkable. In the United States for example, from 1920 to the mid 1960s (excepting the period of the Great Depression), usage increased at seven percent annually – about five times the rate of usage of all forms of energy combined and three times the rate of economic expansion in general,” says the IBM report, “Switching perspectives: Creating new business models for a changing world of energy.”

But today we no longer need such expansion. The grow-and-build model is obsolete, yet continues to be used by utilities. As a result, utility stocks, which in the 1940s-1960s significantly outperformed the Dow Jones Industrial Average, now lag well behind.

Instead of expanding their territory, utilities are being called upon to change their product — to offer energy that is more efficient and clean and service that is more consumer-friendly.

Smart grid technology can help utilities meet today’s imperative. But it brings with it a new and complex relationship between customer and utility. This is because smart grid allows consumers to control energy usage via a home computer. Heck, their appliances can control energy usage without the consumer doing anything. And with increased use of solar energy and other distributed technologies, the home also becomes power plant and storage facility for the electric utility.

“Companies willing to tackle industry model innovation and sit at the nexus of new complex relationships among business partners and customers will be well positioned to create and capture new demand for emerging products and services. Strong growth in revenues and profits – albeit accompanied by some risks – is achievable in multisided business models because of the embedded network economies of scale (i.e., margins increase with network size),” says the report.

IBM calls this new business model “a multisided platform.” What does it look like? Think shopping mall.

“Manufacturers, retailers and shoppers all benefit from having a single location where they can meet and transact business. A wider variety of stores and services brings more shoppers; more shoppers bring higher sales volumes for manufacturers and lower costs for retailers (and, in theory, also lower prices for shoppers). Thus, some element of network economy is bundled into the shopping mall value proposition. The platform owner (the mall operator) extracts some of this value in the form of rent to store owners and, in some cases, service fees to shoppers,” says the report.

If indeed this is the future, it won’t be embraced quickly or easily by utilities, which are notorious for their caution. For those who do move forward, here is some of what IBM advises.

Be sure your current customer base is sizable enough to ensure that you get a meaningful head start.

But don’t hurry. History has shown that later movers may actually benefit from standing back from the first wave.

Time the announcement of your new business model carefully to avoid shocking long-time constituencies or alerting rivals too soon.

Consider corporate culture changes that will ensue.

What might this new model mean to the utility business? A new kind of grow-and-build. Except this time the industry will not conquer the frontier with power plants and transmission, but information technology. See the full report here: http://www-935.ibm.com/services/us/gbs/bus/html/ibv-electric-utility-innovation.html?ca=rss_bcs

Visit Elisa Wood at http://www.realenergywriters.com/ and pick up her free Energy Efficiency Markets podcast and newsletter.

Is green energy our new plastics industry?

By Elisa Wood

December 17, 2009

If The Graduate were written today, Mr. McGuire’s career tip to Benjamin probably would have been “green,” rather than “plastics.” But it’s likely Benjamin would have responded in the same quizzical way: “Just how do you mean that, sir?”

It was difficult to envision the vast number of new products, businesses and careers that would emerge from the plastics industry following World War II. The same is true for the green energy industry today. A report issued December 16 by PricewaterhouseCoopers sheds some light.http://www.pwc.com/us/cleantechrevolution

To know where the business opportunities will be, watch the unusual alliances forming among industries, according to “Cleantech Revolution: Building Smart Infrastructures.” We see hints already as automakers, utilities, battery makers and communications providers ally in preparation for an expected $165 billion smart grid build-out. The report cites several examples, among them:

• Nissan’s partnership with San Diego Gas & Electric to build electric vehicle charging stations
• Echelon and T-Mobile’s deal to create wireless networks connecting utilities to smart meters
• Cisco assisting Duke Energy in building a smart grid

“As the build-out gains traction, it has the potential to support a proliferation of new businesses across sectors, much like the evolution of both the semiconductor industry and the Internet,” says Tim Carey, PWC U.S. clean technology leader.

Don’t be surprised, says the report, to see a national retail store chain partner with an electric battery maker to install charging stations nationwide for plug-in electric vehicles. A new wave of corporate mergers and acquisitions also could be in the cards. The opportunities are vast, especially when you consider the size of the smart grid. The US has 160 million households awaiting installation of smart meters. These new devices will require changes in the way we operate our electrical infrastructure, which encompasses 3,100 utilities, 10,000 power plants, 5,600 distributed energy facilities and 157,000 miles of high voltage transmission wires, says the report. How many better mousetraps can a system of this size support? More than we can imagine.

The clean technology, boom, however, depends heavily on consumer acceptance. If consumers find smart meters too complicated or plug-in hybrids unreliable, the game is over. To avoid this problem, organizations like the American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy are focusing on understanding customer motivation.http://www.aceee.org/conf/09becc/09beccindex.htm.

Use of smart grid technologies must become “pervasive and ingrained,” says the PWC report. Sunil Sharan, of the Center for American Progress, sees the smart meter becoming like the Blackberry, “with all sorts of applications.” Indeed, energy industry insiders often describe the next game changer – whatever it will be – as the cell phone of energy. But given how integral electricity is to our everyday lives, clean technologies need to become everyman products. Out of the corporate alliances, the mergers, the breakthroughs and the investment deals, maybe it’s not energy’s cell phone that will make fortunes, but its plastic wrap.

Visit Elisa Wood at http://www.realenergywriters.com/ and pick up her free Energy Efficiency Markets podcast and newsletter.

How well is clean energy weathering the recession?

By Elisa Wood

March 5, 2009

The clean energy industry may not be popping the champagne cork, but it is at least holding the bottle in hand. While not unscathed by the recession, the industry sees growth in several sectors, according to recent reports.

For example, use of smart meters—a key technology for better energy management and efficiency – is increasing at a rapid clip. A study by ABI Research, “Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMM and AMI),” forecasts that the number of smart meters installed worldwide will reach 76 million this year, up from 49 million in 2007. Smart meters will benefit from an estimated $4.5 billion that the US plans to spend on smart grid initiatives as part of the federal stimulus package.

“We don’t think that the economic crisis is having a significant effect,” says Sam Lucero, senior analyst for ABI Research. “Utilities’ smart metering deployments are typically multi-year plans developed in the context of regulated market environments, and not terribly susceptible to short-term economic fluctuations.”

Press reports indicate that two other energy-cutting products are poised for significant growth this year. Moneynews.com quotes analysts who say demand response companies are likely to see recovery in 2009 following a dramatic fall in stocks of some leading companies. Meanwhile, industry insiders say they expect continued expansion for combined heat and power, a resource that has won new federal tax incentives and state support. See my article in the January/February issue of Cogeneration and Onsite Power Production magazine for more details.

Not all the news is good though. Greentech Media and the Prometheus Institute for Sustainable Development project that the global market for photovoltaics will shrink 15% this year to $12 billion. This is solar energy’s poorest performance since 1994, according to the report. At the same time, Lux Research says this year’s solar shakeout – caused by oversupply of cell and module capacity – will push solar prices closer to grid parity and precipitate expansion.

Meanwhile, expect to read a lot more about the clean energy sector in the coming year. William Brent’s Search for Cleantech reports that members of the media foresee heightened coverage of the cleantech sector in 2009 (and it certainly wasn’t light coverage last year.) Seventy-five percent of bloggers, mainstream newspapers, magazines and broadcasters surveyed say readers and editors will demand more coverage of the sector. So while the champagne may not be flowing yet, the information certainly is.

Visit Elisa Wood at www.realenergywriters.com and pick up her free Energy Efficiency Markets podcast and newsletter.